The Top Five Morgan Silver Dollars

Why waste everyone's time? Let's skip theFirst, I researched individual Morgan dollar retail
appetizers and get to the meaty stuff right now:prices as they existed in 1950, for a broad range
The Morgan silver dollars poised to increase theof conditions, and entered this data on a
most in value in the years ahead are the 1895,computer spreadsheet. Moving forward in time,
1892-CC, 1894, 1878-CC, and the 1883-CC. Prettyvalues from the years 1980, 1995, and 2000
bold prediction, eh? At this point, the reader nowwere likewise recorded. Finally, estimated selling
has three options: (1) Stop reading and act uponprices in 2005 were juxtaposed with counterpart
this information, (2) Stop reading and get on withdata from those earlier years. Because grading
life, or (3) Continue on, evaluate the analyticalterminology has evolved over the 55 year period,
approach to identify the "Top Five" Morgan dollars,certain assumptions were made to progressively
and then implement a variation of (1) or (2)track price movements throughout the time
above. If you've gotten this far, we encouragespectrum (e.g. an "Uncirculated" value in 1950 is
you to continue on with option (3).equivalent to the "MS-60" of today).
First, a little background info on the Morgan silverFor each date and condition, compounded annual
dollar...return rates were computed from 1950 to 2005.
The Morgan silver dollar is today one of the most[Editorial note: compounded annual return rate is
popular of all collector coins. First minted in 1878the accepted yardstick for comparing investment
following the passage of the Bland-Alison Act, theperformance. Of course, coins do not grow at a
new dollar was named after its designer, Georgeguaranteed uniform rate, such as bonds do, but if
T. Morgan. Political pressure by powerful silvera coin is purchased at a certain price, and that
mining companies, in a gambit to stabilize the priceprice is compared with the value of the coin at
of their commodity at artificially high levels,some later date, the compounded annual return
created the impetus driving the legislative action.rate can be calculated for the time period in
Bland-Alison led to the overproduction of silverbetween]. Return rate computations were made
dollars, resulting in millions of these unusedfrom 1980 to 2005, 1995 to 2005, and 2000 to
"cartwheels" languishing in bank and Treasury2005. For each Morgan dollar, the data was placed
vaults. Indeed, few coins have ever been releasedin tabular format.
under more dubious circumstances than MorganNext, I calculated a "composite" score for each
silver dollars. Minting continued until 1904, and thendate by averaging all the compounded return
again for one more year in 1921, when the seriesrates computed for that date. I then ranked all
finally came to a close.the "composite" scores. The Morgan silver dollars
For decades thereafter, Morgan dollars werewith the highest scores are as follows:
largely snubbed by hobbyists. Many dates, includingDate: Score:
those in mint state condition, could be obtained1895 11.37
for as little as $1.00. This situation shifted1892-CC 10.54
dramatically in 1962, when the US government1894 10.43
began selling original 1000-piece silver dollar1878-CC 10.28
Treasury bags to the public at face value. Stories1883-CC 10.25
of rare dollar finds circulated widely, touching off aSo, it would appear, based on past performance
veritable Morgan mania. Within a matter ofover a period of 55 years, the 1895 is the
months, all but a small fraction of the federallyMorgan silver dollar with the best hope of
owned coins were transferred from governmentappreciating significantly in the years ahead,
vaults to private hands, consequently expandingfollowed by the 1892-CC, 1894, 1878-CC, and
the Morgan dollar collector base far beyond1883-CC. Not surprisingly, dollars of the Carson
anything seen previously.City Mint occupy 13 of the top 16 positions,
Since then, Morgan silver dollars have proudlythanks to persistent collectors scrambling for bona
perched themselves atop the catbird seat of thefide artifacts of the romantic American West. On
numismatic world. Their physical size, availability,the opposite end of the rankings, Morgan silver
beauty, and historical significance have consistentlydollars having the bleakest long term prospects
attracted herds of new buyers. Numerousinclude the 1898, 1899-O, 1884, and the 1888-O,
boom-turned-bust cycles have come and gone,followed by the 1897 coming in dead last with a
sometimes driven by pure speculative motives,score of 2.66.
but from a long-term perspective, most MorganAnyone whose dual objective is to acquire Morgan
dollar prices have trended somewhat positive.silver dollars with a bullish future ought to begin
Unlike some controversial promoters in the past, Ilooking at the "Top Five" above. Purchase coins in
do not propose purchasing Morgan silver dollarsthe best condition you can afford, but be sure the
simply as investment vehicles. However, forcoins are clean, problem-free, and CERTIFIED by
collectors hoping to satisfy their numismatica reputable grading service. Be prepared to hold
yearnings AND acquire coins destined to be worthfor at least five years. Morgan dollars have
substantially more in the future, Morgan dollars doskyrocketed in value in the last three years, so
present a few opportunities. As noted above, assome cooling off may be in order before the
a whole, Morgans have gained moderately in valuenext upward cycle.
over the years. The crucial challenge, then, is toIf a polling firm were to survey the population of
identify which members of this series haveUS coin collectors, it is very possible that Morgan
enjoyed the best growth patterns in the past.silver dollars would win the vote as the most
The underlying logic is clear: coins that haveappealing coin in American coinage history. These
demonstrated the strongest gains over a longbeautiful coins have been the heartbeat of the
period of time are the coins best positioned tohobby for many years, with no retreat in sight.
show similar price advancements with theIronically, these same coins spent the better part
continued passage of time.of a century hidden away in government vaults,
In order to measure past performance and thusunseen, unwanted, and unloved. My, how times
visualize Morgans most likely headed toward ahave changed!
bullish future, I developed a systematic approach.